Efeitos econômicos da expansão da oferta de petróleo e gás natural provenientes do Pré-Sal brasileiro

• Ano de defesa: 2013
• Autor(a) principal: Leonardo Marcos Valladares
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais; UFMG
• Palavras-chave em Português: Petróleo e Gás Natural; Planejamento Energético; Economia Brasileira; Pré-Sal Brasileiro; Equilíbrio Geral Computável; Economia da Energia; Petróleo Brasil; Gás natural Brasil; Pré-sal
• Link de acesso: http://hdl.handle.net/1843/FACE-9W9JPM

This dissertation is devoted to the study of long run economic impacts (2010-2030) of growing supply of oil and natural gas from Brazilian Pre-Salt. The research methodology is based on simulations imposed on a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model specifically designed for this work, which, among other attributes, incorporates recursive dynamics mechanisms, specifications of production functions and database structure specially designed for analysis of energy issues. The simulation results revealed positive long run effects of Pre-Salts production on GDP growth and trade balance, and negligible impacts on aggregate employment. Sectoral results reveal incentives for greater activity levels and sectoral investment shifts favorable to sectors linked to the oil and natural gas industry, and widespread effects of energy substitution favorable to consumption of petroleum products and natural gas.