Complexidade econômica: uma proposta metodológica para identificação de produtos estratégicos

• Ano de defesa: 2019
• Autor(a) principal: Guilherme Sganserla Torres
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais; Brasil; FACE - FACULDADE DE CIENCIAS ECONOMICAS; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia; UFMG
• Palavras-chave em Português: Mudança estrutural; Complexidade econômica; Produtos estratégicos; Desenvolvimento econômico; Indicadores econômicos; Mudança social
• Link de acesso: http://hdl.handle.net/1843/32851

This work contributes to the literature on economic complexity literature by proposing a method to identify strategic goods whose production would foster faster economic development. The method, the Multidimensional Matching, introduces two innovations. First, given the central role played by capabilities in the literature, it takes into consideration a large number of socio-economic characteristics prior to considering each good's characteristics. Secondly, it reduces subjectivity in the choice of variables by consistent applying statistical methods. To do so, three statistical models are used sequentially. Principal Component Analysis is used to generate aggregated worldwide indicators on human capital, institutions, government, infrastructure and technology. Next, the predicted probability of export is estimated using a Probit regression to identify a list of strategic goods in the target country without revealed comparative advantages (RCA). Finally, Propensity Score Matching is used to identify countries that have a near predict probability of exporting a given good with RCA while Brazil doesn't. A list of suggested strategic goods is rendered, divided into two hubs. The results suggest that the development of the 19 identified products would make Brazil's complexity rise significantly.