Análise da aplicabilidade de modelos de estimativa de perdas de vidas para inundações provenientes de rupturas de barragens de rejeitos

• Ano de defesa: 2020
• Autor(a) principal: André Felipe Rocha da Silva
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais; Brasil; ENG - DEPARTAMENTO DE ENGENHARIA SANITÁRIA E AMBIENTAL; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Saneamento, Meio Ambiente e Recursos Hídricos; UFMG
• Palavras-chave em Português: Avaliação de risco; Fatalidades; HEC-LifeSim; RCEM; Engenharia sanitária; Recursos hídricos - Desenvolvimento; Avaliação de riscos; Barragens de rejeitos; Desastres ambientais; Inundações
• Link de acesso: http://hdl.handle.net/1843/42930

Among the direct and indirect impacts resulting from both natural and technological floods, human fatalities are the most harmful consequences. Using mathematical modeling and computer simulations, life loss estimates are results that, when prospectively designed based on the comparison of different flood alert scenarios that can be implemented, provide important insights for the elaboration of more robust alerts and to the most effective emergency planning. In Brazil, the last accidents with major impacts and fatalities occurred due to the rupture of mining tailings dams in the municipalities of Mariana and Brumadinho. Even though such accidents present high fragility due to several factors, the existing literature is still scant. In general, the application of models that estimates life loss is destined to assess natural floods or floods due to ruptures of structures with the purpose of damming water. In this context, aiming to insert a new variable in the verification of the quality and effectiveness of the warning systems proposed in emergency planning, the purpose of this work is to evaluate the applicability of two models of estimating life loss with different principles, RCEM and HEC- LifeSim, in floods caused by ruptures of tailings dams through the analysis of two cases of ruptures that occurred in dams in Minas Gerais: São Francisco (Miraí) and Fundão (Mariana). For the development of the work, the spread of the flood wave was carried out by the HEC-RAS software to obtain hydraulic parameters and to delimit the affected region, which was characterized through vulnerability and exposure analysis using census data. Subsequently, a base scenario was determined for each model of life loss estimation, considering the real characteristics of the events. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of the main parameters of each model was carried out, which, together with the actual values of fatalities that occurred, helped to verify the applicability and to discuss the uncertainties existing in the modeling. For the case of Miraí, we observed the convergence of both models. For Mariana, overestimation was verified. Regarding the applicability of the models, it was found that the RCEM model has high subjectivity in determining the flood severity (DV) and the fatality rate and that HEC-LifeSim model had limitations regarding the characterization of the evacuation, in cases of flooding with very short wave arrival time.