Compressão da mortalidade: entendendo a variabilidade da idade à morte na população do estado de São Paulo, 1980-2005

• Ano de defesa: 2008
• Autor(a) principal: Marcos Roberto Gonzaga
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais; UFMG
• Palavras-chave em Português: mortalidade; longevidade; retangularização; Mortalidade São Paulo (Estado)
• Link de acesso: http://hdl.handle.net/1843/AMSA-7F8KLK

The historical decline in mortality rates in developed countries has two clear effects: the reduction in the variability of age at death, and a concentration of deaths at older ages. In the developing world, it is not yet known whether the on-going process of mortality decline will lead to the same situation.The objective of this master's thesis is to analyze how the changes in mortality, could affect the distribution of deaths and the variability in the age at death, in São Paulo between 1980 and 2005. The changes in the distribution of deaths over recent years are evident. The traditional measures of central tendency, such as life expectancy at birth, modal age at death and mean age at death, show that the average duration of life has increased by 7 years from 1980 to 2005. However, it is also important to study whether this movement was accompanied by a reduction in the variability of the age at death. This result would provide some support to the hypothesis of compression of mortality in Brazil. We use three different indicators (Interquantile Range, shortest age interval in which a given proportion of deaths take place and standard deviation of the age at death) to evaluate the compression of mortality in Sao Paulo. The results provide evidence of a process of compression in recent years. We also observe two different periods of change. From 1980 to 1995, our results show a movement to the right of the mortality curved accompanied by an increase in the variability of age at death. In more recent years, from 1995 to 2005, the concentration to the right of the distribution was followed by a reduction in the variability of the age at death. In some cases, when ignoring young adult deaths, we find that the compression of mortality (reduction in the age variability) happened for the whole period of analysis. Last, we find that female deaths are much more concentrated around some age than male deaths.