Avaliação de fatores que influenciam na estimativa da geração e operação de sistemas fotovoltaicos conectados à rede elétrica

• Ano de defesa: 2017
• Autor(a) principal: Luis Guilherme Monteiro Oliveira
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais; UFMG
• Palavras-chave em Português: Validação de modelos matemáticos para estimativa da geração de energia; Incertezas no processo de geração de energia; Estimativa de poeira em módulos fotovoltaicos; Potência real de módulos fotovoltaicos; Desenvolvimento de ferramentas computacionais; Sistemas fotovoltaicos; Engenharia elétrica; Geração de energia fotovoltaica; Energia elétrica Modelos matemáticos
• Link de acesso: http://hdl.handle.net/1843/BUBD-AR5FZG

In projects of Photovoltaic Systems Connected to the Electrical Network (SFCR) one of the relevant areas related to the risk is the quantification of the expectation of the annual energy production. The forecast of the energy generated offers a knowledge of the risk in the project, whichcan be quantified and qualified through the amount of uncertainties involved with the estimate. Many studies / researches are found in the literature that try to quantify / qualify the uncertainties in the prediction of the energy production of an SFCR. However, many designers do not differentiate inputs to models and are not aware of how calculations are performed and thus uncertainties in data and modeling / simulations are underestimated in their perception. Therefore, there is an excess ofconfidence in many designers in the use of simulations generated by simulation software. Thus, modeling and predicting, by reducing uncertainties, SFCR's energy production has become essentialfor the development of any project and is also a technical challenge due to the stochastic nature of the meteorological parameters and parameters intrinsic to the equipment (modules, inverters, etc).This research is based on the evaluation of the electric power generation capacity from SFCR and its uncertainties, that is, on the evaluation of factors that influence generation forecasting such as: estimation of the solar resource (and its uncertainties), models of Photovoltaic modules and inverters, real installed power, among others. Therefore, the validation of the several mathematical models was performed, where they presented good results for local conditions of test, and they wereimplemented in a computer tool called SunoUFMG, developed in Matlab / PhP, whose purpose is to estimate the generation of an SFCR with minimization of uncertainties. In addition, field measurements were carried out at the Mineirão Photovoltaic Plant, in order to verify the real power of the photovoltaic generators of this system and, therefore, to evaluate its generation capacity with the inclusion of uncertainties. The results found by the measurement campaign showed that themeasurements extrapolated to the standard test conditions, compared to the technical data label power data located at the back of the PV modules, were high. Therefore, three hypotheses for this situation have emerged (shading and dust on the panels and the actual power of the installedmodules) and that may be the cause (s) for the low performance of the solar plant in the measurement period.