Estudo de viabilidade técnico-econômica para a implementação de unidades produtoras de propeno e polipropileno, a partir do gás liqüefeito de petróleo produzido na refinaria Gabriel Passos (Betim-MG), utilizando a técnica de opções reais

• Ano de defesa: 2005
• Autor(a) principal: Carlos Eustaquio Soukef Domingos
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais; UFMG
• Palavras-chave em Português: Engenharia química; Gas de petroleo liquefeito; Engenharia quimica
• Link de acesso: http://hdl.handle.net/1843/BUBD-A4UL8V

The technical and economical feasibility study were developed for the implementation of an industrial polypropylene complex in the Minas Gerais, State, Brazil, applying the Real Options analysis. The petrochemical complex comprises two process plants: propylene separation plant and polypropylene plant. The raw material for polypropylene production is the propylene, main component of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), produced in catalytic cracking and in delayed cocking units of Regap refinery, located in Betim city, MG state. The real option analyzed was waiting-to-invest or defer, a typical American option, valid in 2006, 2007 and 2008. An three years cashflow investment was considered. In this way, based on a cashflow developed for the project, waiting option value was analyzed to subsidy the decision maker the best moment to invest in the petrochemical complex. To gathering the distribution of probability of the asset subject to risk, the net present value (NPV), Monte Carlo simulation method was applied, taking in account the following combined uncertainties: LPG and polypropylene prices, cost of investment for propylene separation plant and polypropylene production unit. For calculation of waiting-to-invest option, a binomial distribution has been used, from NPV volatility resulting from Monte Carlo simulation, considering one year time interval. Study has shown that the project is highly attractive with NPV = 61,70 US$ million, being recomended for immediate investment.