Mudanças demográficas no Brasil e sustentabilidade dos planos de saúde

• Ano de defesa: 2013
• Autor(a) principal: Fernando Ferreira Kelles
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais; UFMG
• Palavras-chave em Português: Sinistralidade; Saúde suplementar; Envelhecimento populacional; Planos de saúde; Sustentabilidade financeira; Serviços de saude Brasil; Assistencia medica Brasil; Saúde; Envelhecimento
• Link de acesso: http://hdl.handle.net/1843/AMSA-9AJQ5B

A valuation of the Health Supplementary Sector in Brazil is undergone under its importance in the health of the Brazilian people. This sector represents an important economic activity, manages billions of dollars, employs an impressive part of the labor force, is attracting foreign capital to Brazil and is a general wish of people having a health plan. A Reference Model was constructed for making possible studying this sector under a well defined set of assumptions. A whole valuation of Health Supplementary System was done, including the entire set of health plans today existing in the five modalities of health operators1: Self-Management (Autogestões), Medical Cooperatives, Philanthropies, Group Medicine and Health Insurance Companies. Three sets of private medical health plans were examined: collective and individual plans, collective plans only and individual plans only. The different types of health assistance expenditure, defined by ANS, were taken into account, considering its projections till 2050. The year of 2010 was taken as base line. The starting point was the Brazilian population coverage by the Health Supplementary System in the base line. This coverage was considered as constant during the projection years. By using this assumption and the estimation of Brazilian population till 2050 undertook by IBGE in 2008, the pure demographic effect of occurring demographic changes was evaluated. An inference was done about the financial sustainability that Health Supplementary System will present in the coming years and decades for each of the sets taken as reference and possible solutions were suggested for preventing that the financial equilibrium be lost. When there were not sufficient data provided by ANS or IBGE, indirect data were searched in other populations, taking care for the validation of them through different sources. The conclusion is that the individual plans can´t already be maintained by its own, depending on the collective plans which can do so till 2017. For the time ahead a new model of Supplementary Health System shall be created.