Relações entre produção industrial e demanda de energia: uma aplicação de Modelo Var

• Ano de defesa: 2009
• Autor(a) principal: Damasceno, Geovani Maia
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Palavras-chave em Português: Energia - Consumo; Econometria; Produção industrial
• Link de acesso: http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/5306

The objective of this research is to analyze the relationship between industrial production and demand for electric energy in the Ceará state. First, it analyzed the behavior of the series used in the study, verifying if they were stationary or integrated processes. Second, Cointegrating tests were utilized to verify of the long-run relationship among economic variables. Finally, through VAR estimation, it was possible to analyze the effect of the variation a long of the time of the industrial production on the others variables. The results obtained indicated that shocks in the industrial production make to increase the energy production, over all of the oil derivatives. The effect most significant occurred on the variable oil diesel. In relation to the electric energy, the results had little indicated a significant variation of this source to explain the increase of the industrial production. In virtue of Ceará industry to be more sensible the shocks in the oil derivatives that in the electric energy, seem to be more reasonable to the State to adopt politics that stimulate the expansion of offer of the first ones, in case that it has as pretension to stimulate its industrial growth.