Uma proposta de modelo de equilíbrio geral dinâmico recursivo para a economia brasileira: análises e projeções a partir de uma matriz insumo-produto

• Ano de defesa: 2022
• Autor(a) principal: Primerano, Vincenzo
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Palavras-chave em Português: Matriz insumo-produto (MIP); matriz de contabilidade social (MCS); equilíbrio geral computável (EGC); previsão
• Link de acesso: http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/64890

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models can be thought of as a natural extension of the input-output analysis models. CGE models have been used as a tool for simulation and analysis of the potential effects of implementing economic policies on the behavior of agents, the flow of incarne and the well-being of families that are part of a given region. ln this context, this study aims to propose an altemative method to estimate the long-term relationships between the agents of the Brazilian economy through the development of a dynamic recursive CGE model, saving driven, using as a data source the information available in a social accounting matrix (SAM). The social accounting matrices, used as input in the model, were constructed from the 2010 input-output (10) tables published by the IBGE and the IO tables, also from 2010, estimated by USP's Regional and Urban Economics Centre (NEREUS). A third SAM was elaborated from the IBGE's 2015 IO table and used as a benchmark to evaluate the model's projection performance, measured by comparing the distance between the data actually observed in 2015 and those projected until that year from the IBGE's and NEREUS' 2010 social accounting matrices. Results suggests that the developed CGE model has the potential, from a theoretical point of view, to become a consistent method for estimating the growth path of the Brazilian economy, with the SAM constructed from the IBGE's IO table being the one that proved to be the most suitable to be used as a data source in the model.