Modelo de governança adaptativa para os recursos hídricos utilizando cenários climáticos

• Ano de defesa: 2012
• Autor(a) principal: Cysne, Andréa Pereira
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Palavras-chave em Português: Recursos hídricos; Mudanças climáticas; Resiliência
• Link de acesso: http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/3878

The intergrated management of water resources and the adaptive government are institutional and management paradigms created to solve the deficiencies of the water resources management. On the integrated management, the challenge present itself on the establishment of institutional arrangements and appropriate instruments. On the adaptive governance, the challenge is configured to manage under conditions of uncertainty. Recently, it´s been observed a tendency of fusion between these two paradigms to face the increasing complexity of factors that shape and stress the water resources management, the climate change being one of these factors. In the Brazilian semiarid, the uncertainties associated with climate change are added to natural variability typical of the region, amplifying the complexity of the management of its water systems, which makes relevant the incorporation of these concepts. From this perspective, this study interprets the management system of water resources of the State of Ceará, under the point of view of ecological resilience and proposed a model of adaptive governance of water resources, under scenarios of climatic changes. As a case study, it was analyzed the Jaguaribe-Metropolitanas system, which showed that the interconnection through Eixão Water and Canal Worker, provide high connectivity of the system, and a low potential for changes in the same.Thus, the system becomes too dependent on a single source of water - the Castanhão - which makes it vulnerable to any failure that occurs within it. In general, it was verified that the possible climate changes would bring a decrease in the resilience of the system, since it was found a greater need to import water from the River Basin Jaguaribe for the Metropolitan Region of Fortaleza, when comparing the emissions scenarios (20C3M and A1B) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It is suggested, therefore, the management of resilience through adaptive governance.