Análise do ICMS do estado do Ceará no período de 2000 a 2013

• Ano de defesa: 2016
• Autor(a) principal: Silvestre, Cleber Dimas
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Palavras-chave em Português: Arrecadação do ICMS; Legislação; Modelos autorregressivos
• Link de acesso: http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/19727

The accountability by governments is one of the achievements of democracy that should be put into practice in the preparation, execution and control of the public budget. Such monitoring is important as the achievement of programs, plans and projects depends greatly on the availability of resources and, therefore, efficiency in tax collection. Therefore, it is essential that governments are provided with tools for predicting the ICMS revenue in a given period to make a financial planning and program their actions effectively. Within this context, the aim of this paper is to discuss the tax laws with respect to ICMS and build a predictive model for ICMS collection in the state of Ceará, with the application of an autoregression mode. Empirical results for January 2000 to September 2013 show that the ARIMA model (1.1) is shown to be consistent for predicting time series. The forecast was conducted from January to May 2014 as the model specified above at $ 1,000. We note that in this period the ICMS will be approximately 852,546 in January; 861,646 in February; 870,839 in March; 880,123 in April and 889,501 in May, respectively.