Redu????o da subjetividade na an??lise de vari??veis externas ?? organiza????o com uso de modelagem qualitativa e simula????o

• Ano de defesa: 2016
• Autor(a) principal: Rodrigues, Danilo Marchiori
• Orientador(a): Prado, H??rcules Ant??nio do
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Cat??lica de Bras??lia
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Programa Strictu Sensu em Gest??o do Conhecimento e da Tecnologia da Informa????o
• Departamento: Escola de Educa????o, Tecnologia e Comunica????o
• País: Brasil
• Palavras-chave em Português: Gest??o Conhecimento; Tecnologia da Informa????o; Monitoramento; Planejamento Estrat??gico; Cen??rios; Modelagem Qualitativa; Simula????o; Subjetividade
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: CIENCIA DA COMPUTACAO::METODOLOGIA E TECNICAS DA COMPUTACAO
• Link de acesso: https://bdtd.ucb.br:8443/jspui/handle/tede/1949

Facing uncertainty, complexity and dynamics of environments where they are in, organizations aim to understand the impacts of occurring in the economy, society, politics and technology by external scanning and internalizing the effects of those changes. In the establishment of monitoring strategies also interferes cognitive nature factors that influence both the finding of the change and in order to internalize it. Thus, in order to contribute with studying of the internalization process of outward changes in organization, the current work began identifying the state of the art in monitoring, scenario scanning, simulation and subjectivity, then obtain the theoretical approach in which to propose a method of internalizing more dynamic and less subjective changes that used qualitative modeling in building scenarios with simulation, with support of software tool. Case study was the modality chosen to propose a method to support the internalization of external changes. The variables were extracted from the prospective study of Public Security of IPEA published in 2015, for generation of qualitative models and scenarios that were simulated. Data collection was conducted through questionnaire and workshop. As a result, the proposed method has shown useful for strategic management professionals (i) check consistency of scenarios and coherence of models of entity relationships; (ii) in presentation of alternative behaviors; (iii) in analysis of how cognitive biases interfere with the strategic reviews; (iv) and in organizational learning.