An??lise econ??mica do setor de energia el??trica brasileiro: pre??o spot e leil??es de transmiss??o

• Ano de defesa: 2016
• Autor(a) principal: Silva, Washington Martins da
• Orientador(a): Silva Filho, Osvaldo C. da
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Cat??lica de Bras??lia
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Programa Strictu Sensu em Economia de Empresas
• Departamento: Escola de Gest??o e Neg??cios
• País: Brasil
• Palavras-chave em Português: Energia el??trica; An??lise econ??mica; Leil??es
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA
• Resumo em Inglês: This paper aims to examine two topics in the context of growth and modernization of the electricity sector: the short-term energy price and the realization of auctions for construction and operation of electricity transmission assets. In the first analysis was applied a state space model with GARCH volatility to estimate the short-term electricity price explained by the conventional thermal power generation and energy stored seasonally adjusted. The data analyzed refer to the subsystem South East / Central West of the Sistema Interligado Nacional (SIN) between 2001:7-2014:10. The analysis results found evidences that the estimated coefficient for variable thermal generation varies over the sample analyzed and has a statistically significant relationship with the shortterm energy price. On the other hand, although there is statistically significant inverse relationship between the ratio of stored energy with seasonal adjustments and the spot price of electricity, there was no evidence indicating changes in the magnitude of the coefficient over the sample. The period analyzed was disturbed considering that there was a water crisis due to the cooling of the impact of rainfall in reservoir levels, with consequent increase in the volume of thermal power generation. In addition, this paper also analyzes the transmission auctions held in the Brazilian electricity market in the period 1999 to 2015. We used the Endogenouos Switching Regression Model, known as a Roy model, or Tobit type 5 model with copula approach, to analyze the discounts offered in the bids, winners and losers, made by bidders who participated in the auction. This methodological approach is to identify the difference between the proponents and check for evidence of the presence of selectivity, ie influence of unobservable characteristics in the discount offered by tenderers. The results indicated that there is a dependent relationship between the errors of the result function and errors in estimating the selection equation and the best functional form found to the problem was a combination of the copula function "Joe" and "Plackett".
• Link de acesso: https://bdtd.ucb.br:8443/jspui/handle/tede/2144

This paper aims to examine two topics in the context of growth and modernization of the electricity sector: the short-term energy price and the realization of auctions for construction and operation of electricity transmission assets. In the first analysis was applied a state space model with GARCH volatility to estimate the short-term electricity price explained by the conventional thermal power generation and energy stored seasonally adjusted. The data analyzed refer to the subsystem South East / Central West of the Sistema Interligado Nacional (SIN) between 2001:7-2014:10. The analysis results found evidences that the estimated coefficient for variable thermal generation varies over the sample analyzed and has a statistically significant relationship with the shortterm energy price. On the other hand, although there is statistically significant inverse relationship between the ratio of stored energy with seasonal adjustments and the spot price of electricity, there was no evidence indicating changes in the magnitude of the coefficient over the sample. The period analyzed was disturbed considering that there was a water crisis due to the cooling of the impact of rainfall in reservoir levels, with consequent increase in the volume of thermal power generation. In addition, this paper also analyzes the transmission auctions held in the Brazilian electricity market in the period 1999 to 2015. We used the Endogenouos Switching Regression Model, known as a Roy model, or Tobit type 5 model with copula approach, to analyze the discounts offered in the bids, winners and losers, made by bidders who participated in the auction. This methodological approach is to identify the difference between the proponents and check for evidence of the presence of selectivity, ie influence of unobservable characteristics in the discount offered by tenderers. The results indicated that there is a dependent relationship between the errors of the result function and errors in estimating the selection equation and the best functional form found to the problem was a combination of the copula function "Joe" and "Plackett".