Modelos de riscos competitivos no estudo de evasão discente

• Ano de defesa: 2020
• Autor(a) principal: Tortorelli, Fabiana Arca Cruz
• Orientador(a): Cobre, Juliana
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de São Carlos; Câmpus São Carlos
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Programa Interinstitucional de Pós-Graduação em Estatística - PIPGEs
• Palavras-chave em Português: Evasão universitária; Riscos competitivos; Modelo log-log complementar de riscos competitivos; Inferência bayesiana
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: University dropout; Competing risks; Competing risks complementary log-log model; Bayesian inference
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::PROBABILIDADE E ESTATISTICA
• Link de acesso: https://repositorio.ufscar.br/handle/20.500.14289/12304

Dropout is a problem faced by public and private universities. Therefore, the motivation of this work is to investigate the characteristics of students enrolled in a regular undergraduate course and verify which one is related with dropout and/or graduate. For the study we consider competitive risk models, and we propose to use the transformation of complementary log-log for the risk function into discrete data to study specific cause risk at a period of time (calculated in semesters). For the parameters estimations we used Bayesian Inference. We verified that the model proposed in this work can be adjusted to the theoretical data. In real data from the Applied Mathematics course to the Institute of Mathematical and Computer Sciences (ICMC), we concluded that parental education and admission type influence in dropout outcome