Método de previsão de vendas e estimativa de reposição de itens no varejo da moda

Detalhes bibliográficos
Ano de defesa: 2018
Autor(a) principal: Santos, Graziele Marques Mazuco dos lattes
Orientador(a): Ruiz, Duncan Dubugras Alcoba lattes
Banca de defesa: Não Informado pela instituição
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
Idioma: por
Instituição de defesa: Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul
Programa de Pós-Graduação: Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciência da Computação
Departamento: Escola Politécnica
País: Brasil
Palavras-chave em Português:
Palavras-chave em Inglês:
Área do conhecimento CNPq:
Link de acesso: http://tede2.pucrs.br/tede2/handle/tede/8171
Resumo: Demand forecasting is one of the most essential components of supply chain management. Forecasts are used both for long-term and for short-term. Long-term forecasts are important because it is difficult in terms of production to face the demand deviation in a short time, so the anticipation of prediction helps to increase the responsiveness of the supply chain. Short term forecasts are important for the demand monitoring aiming to keep healthy inventory levels. In the fashion industry, the high change of products, the short life cycle and the lack of historical data makes difficult accurate predictions. To deal with this problem, the literature presents three approaches: statistical, artificial intelligence and hybrid that combines statistical and artificial intelligence. This research presents a two-phased method: (1) long-term prediction, identifies the different life cycles in the products, allowing the identification of sales prototypes for each cluster and (2) short-term prediction, classifies new products in the clusters labeled in the long-term phase and adjusts the sales curve considering optimistic and pessimist factors. As a differential, the method is based in dynamic time warping, distance measure for time series. The method is tested in a real dataset with real data from fashion retailers that demonstrates the quality of the contribution.