Avaliação do impacto dos riscos políticos e regulatórios na indústria do petróleo

• Ano de defesa: 2011
• Autor(a) principal: Guimarães, Marcelo Nova Alves Affonso
• Orientador(a): Silva, André Luiz Carvalhal da
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Palavras-chave em Português: Fluxo de caixa; Risco político; WACC; Indústria do petróleo; Risco regulatório
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: Political risk; Regulatory risk; Cash flow; Petroleum industry
• Link de acesso: https://hdl.handle.net/10438/8440

The main objective of this study is to determine the best way to quantify the political and regulatory risks to which certain assets are exposed, which make their market values vary. We present and evaluate political and regulatory risks in the petroleum industry with hypothetical case studies based on real situations. Although affecting the entire economy, indicating that they are systemic risks and should be quantified by adding a spread in the WACC equation, our results indicate that the option to insert them via cash flow probabilistic scenarios produce more consistent results in relation to their true impacts and produce a more powerful analysis when compared to adding a spread in the WACC.