Decisões de entrada das operadoras de petróleo no mercado de energias renováveis: uma aplicação da teoria de opções reais

• Ano de defesa: 2021
• Autor(a) principal: Gomes, Thiago Faggin Pereira
• Orientador(a): Féres, José Gustavo
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Palavras-chave em Português: Economia da energia; Transição energética; Operadoras de petróleo; Estratégia de operadoras de petróleo; Fontes de energia renovável; Análise de investimento; Tomada de decisão; Teoria das opções reais; Método binomial multiperíodo em tempo discreto; Opção de espera; VPL tradicional
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: Energy economics; Energy transition; Major Oil & Gas companies; Oil & Gas company’s strategy; Renewable energy sources; Investment analysis; Decision making; Real option valuation; Binomial method in discrete time; Timing option; Traditional NPV
• Link de acesso: https://hdl.handle.net/10438/30703

This dissertation evaluated the decision to invest in the renewable market by major oil companies, focused on Brazil`s perspective. Many countries in 2015, agreed and committed, in the Paris agreement, to reduce gas emissions in the atmosphere, in a way to limit the temperature increase in 2º Celsius. This scenario is pushing fossil fuels market, that is looking to adapt itself in the new reality, and different strategies have been taken by major operators, some of them decided to invest into renewables, while others to equalize the net balance of its emissions. Also, the timing which these companies are getting into these new strategies is clearly different, as the transition already started for some of them, while others are waiting more to take this decision. After the analysis of annual reports from 2015 and 2019, in regard to revenues, CAPEX, investments and number of subsidiaries of these companies, it was observed that Total, Shell and Equinor have more initiatives than BP, Eni and Petrobras, apart from Chevron and ExxonMobil that are not taken any action on that and prefer to wait. The methodology used to evaluate the decision was the real options valuation, from 2020 to 2050, and through binomial model in discrete time to understand which renewable energy, among offshore wind, onshore wind, solar photovoltaic, concentrated solar power, nuclear and biomass (sugar cane) have the best market potential and when is the best date to invest, between 2030, 2040, 2050, considering the rapid, net zero and business as usual scenarios. It was predicted the price of the BRENT barrel and the Brazilian average power tariff by 2050. The net present value of the option was ranked in all scenarios, and all options of flexibility are higher than zero, therefore, there is no robustness in any of the renewables, and scenarios, to invest in the new venture at moment, being preferred to wait. Additionally, the traditional NPV method was applied, considering two different costs for the BRENT barrel, low and high, and as a result, in the majority of the scenarios the best choice was the onshore wind, except in the net zero scenario with the low-cost barrel, that was the offshore wind. This dissertation presents multiple scenarios combination for all methods used.