Improvement on the sales forecast accuracy for a fast growing company by the best combination of historical data usage and clients segmentation

• Ano de defesa: 2014
• Autor(a) principal: Burgada Muñoz, Santiago
• Orientador(a): Gonçalves, José Mauro Nunes
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: eng
• Palavras-chave em Português: Previsão de vendas; Segmentação de mercado; Análise de séries temporais
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: Demand forecasting; Sales forecasting; Time series; Historical sales data; Forecast accuracy; Quantitative forecast; Qualitative forecast; Historical data usage; Clients segmentation; Fast growing company; Accuracy improvement
• Link de acesso: http://hdl.handle.net/10438/13322

Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.