Metodologia para a estimação por cenários alternativos com base na interação entre modelos subjetivos causais e técnicas analíticas para o dimensionamento de mercado

• Ano de defesa: 1995
• Autor(a) principal: Ribas, José Roberto
• Orientador(a): Vasconcellos, Marcos Augusto de
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Palavras-chave em Português: Metodologia de cenários; Dimensionamento de mercado; Técnicas de previsão; Potencial de mercado; Energia elétrica - Previsão
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: Scenarios methodology; Market measurement; Forecasting techniques; Market potential; Electricity forecasting
• Link de acesso: https://hdl.handle.net/10438/4601

The methodology for forecasting by means of alternative scenarios based on the interaction between causal subjective models and analytical techniques for market measurement establishes a new framework. It provides a systematic approach to the analysis and forecasting practices in areas such as marketing strategy and business planning. We begin this thesis with a presentation of two criteria aimed at classifying the forecasting and scenario-generating techniques. As for the former, we considered some attributes which are usually applied to the selection of a suitable method under particular market conditions. Concerning the latter, we based the tipology on some rules generally employed for the specification of alternative scenarios. In both cases, to support our teorethical foundation, the research was carried out by introducing some selected techniques which strongly embody the concepts used in this thesis. Further analysis of the issue brought on some methods that defined the conceptual model, as for instance, the structural modeling and subjective probabilities. To back up the feasibility of such proposal, we chose the market supplied by the electric industry. The first step of this procedure was a national survey among electric utilities whose main purposes were: (i) point out the techniques and indicators most commonly used; (ii) consider and compare some factors that influence the quality of forecasts, such as team size and the extent of communication with external agencies. Finally, we conducted a practical application of the methodology to the regional market, as regards residential demand for electricity. As for peculiar features, we introduced in our thesis the concepts of simultaneous equations in the analytical side and the consensus analysis technique, which were applied to an exploratory model in the subjective side. The link between such techniques was used to create the scenarios for the prospective demand.