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Análise da influência dos fenômenos el niño e la niña na ocorrência de eventos climáticos de seca e enchente

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التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
المؤلف الرئيسي: Bragança, Cassiano Gustavo Juan Franco Neves
تاريخ النشر: 2024
التنسيق: Master thesis
اللغة: por
المصدر: Repositório Comum do Brasil - Deposita
Download full: https://deposita.ibict.br/handle/deposita/689
الملخص: The effects of climate change are increasingly evident, with the incidence of drought and flood events being noticeable throughout the national territory and in the rest of the world resulting from changes in atmospheric systems. Among the factors that can influence hydrological and meteorological parameters in certain regions, it is worth highlighting the occurrence of the El Niño and La Niña phenomena, recurrently correlated with drought and flood events. Therefore, the main objective of the present work is to analyze the influence of El Niño and La Niña on drought and flood events recorded in Brazil. Historical series of precipitation and flow recorded between the years 1940 and 2018 were analyzed, covering stations installed and in operation in Espírito Santo, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul, Bahia and Ceará. Then, the data were classified according to the incidence and intensity of the phenomena. The average annual precipitation totals from the historical series and during the El Niño and La Niña years were spatialized using the Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method in the QGIS 3.28.8 computational application. Furthermore, the averages obtained with data referring to the period of water crisis that occurred in Espírito Santo between the years 2014 and 2016 were analyzed and compared, discussing the effects of El Niño and La Niña on the records of stations located in Espírito Santo Santo and verifying the variations in the Oceanic Niño Index – ONI in different periods. After preparing the results, historical precipitation and flow data were acquired from other periods within the interval between 1940 and 2018, considering the need to contemplate the greater number of El Niño and La Niña phenomena in other regions of the national territory. Data obtained from stations in Espírito Santo showed a reduction in average precipitation in years of strong El Niño in most stations in the state, with the inverse relationship occurring in periods of strong La Ninã, increasing precipitation and flow values. Interpolation using the IDW method showed a reduction in precipitation in the North of Espírito Santo in El Niño years and an increase in rainfall in the South region. Stations located in Rio Grande do Sul recorded an increase in average precipitation and flow during El Niño years. El Niño and the reduction in La Niña years. The stations of Minas Gerais, Bahia and Ceará presented variations in the analyzes considering the years of El Niño and La Niña; however, the values obtained were not very significant in indicating the influence of the phenomena, and it is prudent to consider the interference of other factors that may affect the hydrological variables analyzed. When analyzing the period of water crisis in Espírito Santo, it was found that the greater intensity of El Niño may be related to drought events in Espírito Santo, presenting a reduction in the average rainfall records in more intense El Niño years according to with ONI.
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author Bragança, Cassiano Gustavo Juan Franco Neves
author_browse Bragança, Cassiano Gustavo Juan Franco Neves
author_facet Bragança, Cassiano Gustavo Juan Franco Neves
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contributor_str_mv Mendonça, Antonio Sérgio Ferreira
Reis, José Antonio Tosta
Santos, Alexandre Rosa
Pavani, Elaine Cristina Rossi
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Mendonça, Antonio Sérgio Ferreira
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/9841888526169409
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Bragança, Cassiano Gustavo Juan Franco Neves
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/2784952269263001
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv Reis, José Antonio Tosta
dc.contributor.referee1Lattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/7828468159099998
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv Santos, Alexandre Rosa
dc.contributor.referee2Lattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/7125826645310758
dc.contributor.referee3.fl_str_mv Pavani, Elaine Cristina Rossi
dc.contributor.referee3Lattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/0719281154060763
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2024-11-11T19:14:05Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2024
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://deposita.ibict.br/handle/deposita/689
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
dc.publisher.country.fl_str_mv Brasil
dc.publisher.department.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo
dc.publisher.program.fl_str_mv Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Ambiental
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Comum do Brasil - Deposita
instname:Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia (Ibict)
instacron:IBICT
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv Engenharias
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Variáveis hidrometeorológicas
Precipitação
Vazão
Crise Hídrica
Mudanças Climáticas
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv Análise da influência dos fenômenos el niño e la niña na ocorrência de eventos climáticos de seca e enchente
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
description The effects of climate change are increasingly evident, with the incidence of drought and flood events being noticeable throughout the national territory and in the rest of the world resulting from changes in atmospheric systems. Among the factors that can influence hydrological and meteorological parameters in certain regions, it is worth highlighting the occurrence of the El Niño and La Niña phenomena, recurrently correlated with drought and flood events. Therefore, the main objective of the present work is to analyze the influence of El Niño and La Niña on drought and flood events recorded in Brazil. Historical series of precipitation and flow recorded between the years 1940 and 2018 were analyzed, covering stations installed and in operation in Espírito Santo, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul, Bahia and Ceará. Then, the data were classified according to the incidence and intensity of the phenomena. The average annual precipitation totals from the historical series and during the El Niño and La Niña years were spatialized using the Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method in the QGIS 3.28.8 computational application. Furthermore, the averages obtained with data referring to the period of water crisis that occurred in Espírito Santo between the years 2014 and 2016 were analyzed and compared, discussing the effects of El Niño and La Niña on the records of stations located in Espírito Santo Santo and verifying the variations in the Oceanic Niño Index – ONI in different periods. After preparing the results, historical precipitation and flow data were acquired from other periods within the interval between 1940 and 2018, considering the need to contemplate the greater number of El Niño and La Niña phenomena in other regions of the national territory. Data obtained from stations in Espírito Santo showed a reduction in average precipitation in years of strong El Niño in most stations in the state, with the inverse relationship occurring in periods of strong La Ninã, increasing precipitation and flow values. Interpolation using the IDW method showed a reduction in precipitation in the North of Espírito Santo in El Niño years and an increase in rainfall in the South region. Stations located in Rio Grande do Sul recorded an increase in average precipitation and flow during El Niño years. El Niño and the reduction in La Niña years. The stations of Minas Gerais, Bahia and Ceará presented variations in the analyzes considering the years of El Niño and La Niña; however, the values obtained were not very significant in indicating the influence of the phenomena, and it is prudent to consider the interference of other factors that may affect the hydrological variables analyzed. When analyzing the period of water crisis in Espírito Santo, it was found that the greater intensity of El Niño may be related to drought events in Espírito Santo, presenting a reduction in the average rainfall records in more intense El Niño years according to with ONI.
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
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oai_identifier_str oai:deposita.ibict.br:deposita/689
publishDate 2024
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publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo
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spelling Mendonça, Antonio Sérgio Ferreirahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/9841888526169409Reis, José Antonio Tostahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/7828468159099998Santos, Alexandre Rosahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/7125826645310758Pavani, Elaine Cristina Rossihttp://lattes.cnpq.br/0719281154060763http://lattes.cnpq.br/2784952269263001Bragança, Cassiano Gustavo Juan Franco Neves2024-11-11T19:14:05Z2024https://deposita.ibict.br/handle/deposita/689The effects of climate change are increasingly evident, with the incidence of drought and flood events being noticeable throughout the national territory and in the rest of the world resulting from changes in atmospheric systems. Among the factors that can influence hydrological and meteorological parameters in certain regions, it is worth highlighting the occurrence of the El Niño and La Niña phenomena, recurrently correlated with drought and flood events. Therefore, the main objective of the present work is to analyze the influence of El Niño and La Niña on drought and flood events recorded in Brazil. Historical series of precipitation and flow recorded between the years 1940 and 2018 were analyzed, covering stations installed and in operation in Espírito Santo, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul, Bahia and Ceará. Then, the data were classified according to the incidence and intensity of the phenomena. The average annual precipitation totals from the historical series and during the El Niño and La Niña years were spatialized using the Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method in the QGIS 3.28.8 computational application. Furthermore, the averages obtained with data referring to the period of water crisis that occurred in Espírito Santo between the years 2014 and 2016 were analyzed and compared, discussing the effects of El Niño and La Niña on the records of stations located in Espírito Santo Santo and verifying the variations in the Oceanic Niño Index – ONI in different periods. After preparing the results, historical precipitation and flow data were acquired from other periods within the interval between 1940 and 2018, considering the need to contemplate the greater number of El Niño and La Niña phenomena in other regions of the national territory. Data obtained from stations in Espírito Santo showed a reduction in average precipitation in years of strong El Niño in most stations in the state, with the inverse relationship occurring in periods of strong La Ninã, increasing precipitation and flow values. Interpolation using the IDW method showed a reduction in precipitation in the North of Espírito Santo in El Niño years and an increase in rainfall in the South region. Stations located in Rio Grande do Sul recorded an increase in average precipitation and flow during El Niño years. El Niño and the reduction in La Niña years. The stations of Minas Gerais, Bahia and Ceará presented variations in the analyzes considering the years of El Niño and La Niña; however, the values obtained were not very significant in indicating the influence of the phenomena, and it is prudent to consider the interference of other factors that may affect the hydrological variables analyzed. When analyzing the period of water crisis in Espírito Santo, it was found that the greater intensity of El Niño may be related to drought events in Espírito Santo, presenting a reduction in the average rainfall records in more intense El Niño years according to with ONI.Os efeitos das mudanças climáticas estão cada vez mais evidentes, sendo perceptível a incidência de eventos de seca e enchentes em todo o território nacional e no restante do mundo decorrentes das alterações nos sistemas atmosféricos. Dentre os fatores que podem influenciar nos parâmetros hidrológicos e meteorológicos em determinadas regiões, é válido ressaltar a ocorrência dos fenômenos El Niño e La Niña, recorrentemente correlacionados com eventos de seca e enchente. Dessa forma, o principal objetivo do presente trabalho é analisar a influência do El Niño e La Niña nos eventos de seca e enchente registrados no Brasil. Foram analisadas séries históricas de precipitação e vazão registradas entre os anos de 1940 e 2018, abrangendo postos instalados e em operação no Espírito Santo, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul, Bahia e Ceará. Em seguida, os dados foram classificados de acordo com a incidência e intensidade dos fenômenos. As médias dos totais anuais de precipitação das séries históricas e durante os anos de El Niño e La Niña foram espacializadas por meio do método de interpolação Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) no aplicativo computacional QGIS 3.28.8. Além disso, foram analisadas e comparadas as médias obtidas com os dados referentes ao período de crise hídrica que ocorreu no Espírito Santo entre os anos de 2014 e 2016, discutindo-se os efeitos do El Niño e La Niña nos registros de postos localizados no Espírito Santo e verificando-se as variações no Índice Oceânico Niño – ION em diferentes períodos. Após a confecção dos resultados, foram obtidos dados históricos de precipitação e vazão de outros períodos dentro do intervalo entre 1940 e 2018, considerando a necessidade de contemplar a maior quantidade de fenômenos El Niño e La Niña nas demais regiões do território nacional. Os dados obtidos das estações do Espírito Santo evidenciaram a redução nas médias de precipitação em anos de El Niño forte na maior parte dos postos no estado, ocorrendo a relação inversa nos períodos de La Ninã forte, aumentando os valores de precipitação e vazão. A interpolação pelo método IDW apresentou uma redução da precipitação ao Norte do Espírito Santo nos anos de El Niño e o aumento das chuvas na região Sul. Os Postos localizados no Rio Grande do Sul registraram o aumento nas médias de precipitação e vazão durante os anos de El Niño e a redução em anos de La Niña. As estações de Minas Gerais, Bahia e Ceará apresentaram variações nas análises considerando os anos de El Niño e La Niña; entretanto, os valores obtidos foram pouco expressivos para indicar a influência dos fenômenos, sendo prudente considerar a interferência de outros fatores que podem afetar as variáveis hidrológicas analisadas. Ao se analisar o período de crise hídrica no Espírito Santo, constatou-se como a maior intensidade do El Niño pode estar relacionada aos eventos de seca no Espírito Santo, apresentando redução nas médias dos registros de precipitação em anos de El Niño mais intensos de acordo com o ION.Sudeste-1application/pdfapplication/pdfporUniversidade Federal do Espírito SantoPrograma de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia AmbientalBrasilUniversidade Federal do Espírito SantoVariáveis hidrometeorológicasPrecipitaçãoVazãoCrise HídricaMudanças ClimáticasEngenhariasAnálise da influência dos fenômenos el niño e la niña na ocorrência de eventos climáticos de seca e enchenteinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Comum do Brasil - Depositainstname:Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia (Ibict)instacron:IBICTTEXTCassianoGustavoJuanFranco Neves-2024-Dissertacao.pdf.txtWritten by FormatFilter org.dspace.app.mediafilter.TikaTextExtractionFilter on 2025-06-06T20:18:51Z (GMT).Extracted texttext/plain103966https://deposita.ibict.br/bitstreams/7db18cd4-e8a4-4329-9006-8f0205a0f60d/download2a32de05602ef1fb4e5b452a271c6782MD53falseAnonymousREADTHUMBNAILCassianoGustavoJuanFranco Neves-2024-Dissertacao.pdf.jpgWritten by FormatFilter org.dspace.app.mediafilter.PDFBoxThumbnail on 2025-06-06T20:18:51Z (GMT).Generated Thumbnailimage/jpeg2592https://deposita.ibict.br/bitstreams/6904c7d1-a440-412c-bc2d-3f48436cac09/downloadaae177e0e79bf63e7e2d64c7adc85daaMD54falseAnonymousREADLICENSElicense.txtWritten by org.dspace.content.LicenseUtilstext/plain; charset=utf-81867https://deposita.ibict.br/bitstreams/282aa5c0-b4ce-4d22-9dea-b503b583f604/downloada7c148eec59885ba1ba6d14692be8465MD51falseAnonymousREADORIGINALCassianoGustavoJuanFranco Neves-2024-Dissertacao.pdf/dspace/deposita/upload/CassianoGustavoJuanFranco Neves-2024-Dissertacao.pdfBragança_Dissertação_2024application/pdf6426041https://deposita.ibict.br/bitstreams/59e4aaa2-56c8-44ab-a236-1771316bf9be/download316bfab27bfda67581d3b69fad4957e0MD52trueAnonymousREADdeposita/6892026-03-20T17:41:10.479939Zopen.accessoai:deposita.ibict.br:deposita/689https://deposita.ibict.brRepositório ComumPUBhttp://deposita.ibict.br/oai/requestdeposita@ibict.bropendoar:46582026-03-20T17:41:10Repositório Comum do Brasil - Deposita - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia (Ibict)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
spellingShingle Análise da influência dos fenômenos el niño e la niña na ocorrência de eventos climáticos de seca e enchente
Bragança, Cassiano Gustavo Juan Franco Neves
Variáveis hidrometeorológicas
Precipitação
Vazão
Crise Hídrica
Mudanças Climáticas
Engenharias
status_str publishedVersion
title Análise da influência dos fenômenos el niño e la niña na ocorrência de eventos climáticos de seca e enchente
title_full Análise da influência dos fenômenos el niño e la niña na ocorrência de eventos climáticos de seca e enchente
title_fullStr Análise da influência dos fenômenos el niño e la niña na ocorrência de eventos climáticos de seca e enchente
title_full_unstemmed Análise da influência dos fenômenos el niño e la niña na ocorrência de eventos climáticos de seca e enchente
title_short Análise da influência dos fenômenos el niño e la niña na ocorrência de eventos climáticos de seca e enchente
title_sort Análise da influência dos fenômenos el niño e la niña na ocorrência de eventos climáticos de seca e enchente
topic Variáveis hidrometeorológicas
Precipitação
Vazão
Crise Hídrica
Mudanças Climáticas
Engenharias
url https://deposita.ibict.br/handle/deposita/689