Atualização da cheia de projeto e o seu impacto na probabilidade de falha por deslizamento da barragem. Estudo de Caso: UHE Santa Clara.
Furkejuvvon:
| Váldodahkki: | |
|---|---|
| Almmustuhttinbeaivi: | 2020 |
| Materiálatiipa: | Master thesis |
| Giella: | por |
| Gáldu: | Repositório Comum do Brasil - Deposita |
| Download full: | https://deposita.ibict.br/handle/deposita/368 |
Čoahkkáigeassu: | Climatic changes that may be affecting the behavior of precipitations, making them more intense, have been observed in several parts of the world. Brazil, having a vast number of dams, may be one of the countries strongly impacted by these changes. Risk assessment, in this context, is essential to assess whether existing dams and those that will be built meet safety criteria, or whether they need reinforcement or an increase in their discharge capacity. In risk analysis, it is necessary to employ probabilistic methods to consider the great variability of the parameters involved and quantify the uncertainties that are disregarded by deterministic methods. In this dissertation, a case study of Santa Clara HPP was carried out to analyze if there were changes in the project flows and the impact that these variations can cause at the probability of failure of the dam. The maximum flows determined at the time of the construction of the dam were compared with the flows found then updating the hydrological studies. In view of the results, it was possible to verify that there was an increase in flow rates. The Monte Carlo Method was used to establish a curve correlating the affluent flow with the failure probability, allowing to calculate, for all return times, the failure probability by sliding. |
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| author | Alberts, Ronald |
| author_browse | Alberts, Ronald |
| author_facet | Alberts, Ronald |
| author_role | author |
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| collection | Repositório Comum do Brasil - Deposita |
| contributor_str_mv | Marques Filho, José Marques Filho, José Soares Klein, Nayara Abdalla Filho, João Elias |
| dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv | Marques Filho, José |
| dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv | http://lattes.cnpq.br/7201569408630470 |
| dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv | Alberts, Ronald |
| dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv | http://lattes.cnpq.br/6249354312310852 |
| dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv | Marques Filho, José |
| dc.contributor.referee1Lattes.fl_str_mv | http://lattes.cnpq.br/7201569408630470 |
| dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv | Soares Klein, Nayara |
| dc.contributor.referee2Lattes.fl_str_mv | http://lattes.cnpq.br/8638037423260998 |
| dc.contributor.referee3.fl_str_mv | Abdalla Filho, João Elias |
| dc.contributor.referee3Lattes.fl_str_mv | http://lattes.cnpq.br/5937902167536869 |
| dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv | 2023-06-21T13:32:30Z |
| dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv | 2020 |
| dc.format.none.fl_str_mv | application/pdf application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv | https://deposita.ibict.br/handle/deposita/368 |
| dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv | por |
| dc.publisher.country.fl_str_mv | Brasil |
| dc.publisher.department.fl_str_mv | Universidade Federal do Paraná |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Universidade Federal do Paraná |
| dc.publisher.program.fl_str_mv | Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de Construção Civil |
| dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| dc.source.none.fl_str_mv | reponame:Repositório Comum do Brasil - Deposita instname:Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia (Ibict) instacron:IBICT |
| dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv | Engenharia Civil |
| dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv | International Affairs Human Rights Venezuelan refugees Peace Studies |
| dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv | Probabilidade de falha Estabilidade de barragens Segurança ao deslizamento Mudanças climáticas Aumento dos fluxos fluviais |
| dc.title.por.fl_str_mv | Atualização da cheia de projeto e o seu impacto na probabilidade de falha por deslizamento da barragem. Estudo de Caso: UHE Santa Clara. |
| dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
| dc.type.status.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
| description | Climatic changes that may be affecting the behavior of precipitations, making them more intense, have been observed in several parts of the world. Brazil, having a vast number of dams, may be one of the countries strongly impacted by these changes. Risk assessment, in this context, is essential to assess whether existing dams and those that will be built meet safety criteria, or whether they need reinforcement or an increase in their discharge capacity. In risk analysis, it is necessary to employ probabilistic methods to consider the great variability of the parameters involved and quantify the uncertainties that are disregarded by deterministic methods. In this dissertation, a case study of Santa Clara HPP was carried out to analyze if there were changes in the project flows and the impact that these variations can cause at the probability of failure of the dam. The maximum flows determined at the time of the construction of the dam were compared with the flows found then updating the hydrological studies. In view of the results, it was possible to verify that there was an increase in flow rates. The Monte Carlo Method was used to establish a curve correlating the affluent flow with the failure probability, allowing to calculate, for all return times, the failure probability by sliding. |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | masterThesis |
| id | IBICT-1_257dccaded2a03bfbf1182e793c33298 |
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| institution | IBICT |
| instname_str | Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia (Ibict) |
| language | por |
| network_acronym_str | IBICT-1 |
| network_name_str | Repositório Comum do Brasil - Deposita |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:deposita.ibict.br:deposita/368 |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publishDateSort | 2020 |
| publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Universidade Federal do Paraná |
| reponame_str | Repositório Comum do Brasil - Deposita |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv | deposita@ibict.br |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv | Repositório Comum do Brasil - Deposita - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia (Ibict) |
| repository_id_str | 4658 |
| spelling | Marques Filho, Joséhttp://lattes.cnpq.br/7201569408630470Marques Filho, Joséhttp://lattes.cnpq.br/7201569408630470Soares Klein, Nayarahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/8638037423260998Abdalla Filho, João Eliashttp://lattes.cnpq.br/5937902167536869http://lattes.cnpq.br/6249354312310852Alberts, Ronald2023-06-21T13:32:30Z2020https://deposita.ibict.br/handle/deposita/368Climatic changes that may be affecting the behavior of precipitations, making them more intense, have been observed in several parts of the world. Brazil, having a vast number of dams, may be one of the countries strongly impacted by these changes. Risk assessment, in this context, is essential to assess whether existing dams and those that will be built meet safety criteria, or whether they need reinforcement or an increase in their discharge capacity. In risk analysis, it is necessary to employ probabilistic methods to consider the great variability of the parameters involved and quantify the uncertainties that are disregarded by deterministic methods. In this dissertation, a case study of Santa Clara HPP was carried out to analyze if there were changes in the project flows and the impact that these variations can cause at the probability of failure of the dam. The maximum flows determined at the time of the construction of the dam were compared with the flows found then updating the hydrological studies. In view of the results, it was possible to verify that there was an increase in flow rates. The Monte Carlo Method was used to establish a curve correlating the affluent flow with the failure probability, allowing to calculate, for all return times, the failure probability by sliding.Mudanças climáticas que podem estar afetando o comportamento das precipitações, tornando-as mais intensas, vem sendo constatadas em várias partes do mundo. O Brasil, por contar com um vasto número de barragens, pode ser um dos países fortemente impactados por estas mudanças. A avaliação de riscos, neste contexto, é fundamental para que seja possível avaliar se as barragens existentes, e as que serão construídas, atendem aos critérios de segurança, ou se necessitam de reforços e aumento na sua capacidade de vertimento. Na análise de riscos é necessário empregar métodos probabilísticos para considerar a grande variabilidade dos parâmetros envolvidos e quantificar as incertezas que são desconsideradas pelos métodos determinísticos. Nesta dissertação foi realizado um estudo de caso da UHE Santa Clara para analisar se houve mudanças nas vazões de projeto e os impactos que estas variações podem ocasionar na probabilidade de ruptura da barragem. As vazões máximas determinadas na época da construção da barragem foram confrontadas com as vazões encontradas ao se atualizar os estudos hidrológicos. Diante dos resultados foi possível constatar que houve um aumento nas vazões. O Método de Monte Carlo foi utilizado para estabelecer uma curva correlacionando a vazão afluente com a probabilidade de falha permitindo calcular, para todos os tempos de retorno, a probabilidade de falha por deslizamento da barragem.Sul-1application/pdfapplication/pdfporUniversidade Federal do ParanáPrograma de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de Construção CivilBrasilUniversidade Federal do ParanáInternational AffairsHuman RightsVenezuelan refugeesPeace StudiesProbabilidade de falhaEstabilidade de barragensSegurança ao deslizamentoMudanças climáticasAumento dos fluxos fluviaisEngenharia CivilAtualização da cheia de projeto e o seu impacto na probabilidade de falha por deslizamento da barragem. 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| spellingShingle | Atualização da cheia de projeto e o seu impacto na probabilidade de falha por deslizamento da barragem. Estudo de Caso: UHE Santa Clara. Alberts, Ronald International Affairs Human Rights Venezuelan refugees Peace Studies Probabilidade de falha Estabilidade de barragens Segurança ao deslizamento Mudanças climáticas Aumento dos fluxos fluviais Engenharia Civil |
| status_str | publishedVersion |
| title | Atualização da cheia de projeto e o seu impacto na probabilidade de falha por deslizamento da barragem. Estudo de Caso: UHE Santa Clara. |
| title_full | Atualização da cheia de projeto e o seu impacto na probabilidade de falha por deslizamento da barragem. Estudo de Caso: UHE Santa Clara. |
| title_fullStr | Atualização da cheia de projeto e o seu impacto na probabilidade de falha por deslizamento da barragem. Estudo de Caso: UHE Santa Clara. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Atualização da cheia de projeto e o seu impacto na probabilidade de falha por deslizamento da barragem. Estudo de Caso: UHE Santa Clara. |
| title_short | Atualização da cheia de projeto e o seu impacto na probabilidade de falha por deslizamento da barragem. Estudo de Caso: UHE Santa Clara. |
| title_sort | Atualização da cheia de projeto e o seu impacto na probabilidade de falha por deslizamento da barragem. Estudo de Caso: UHE Santa Clara. |
| topic | International Affairs Human Rights Venezuelan refugees Peace Studies Probabilidade de falha Estabilidade de barragens Segurança ao deslizamento Mudanças climáticas Aumento dos fluxos fluviais Engenharia Civil |
| url | https://deposita.ibict.br/handle/deposita/368 |