UNCERTAINTIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Santos, Thalyta Soares dos
Publication Date: 2015
Other Authors: Mendes, David, Castro, Aline Anderson de, Silva, Allan Rodrigues
Format: Article
Language: por
Source: Revista Ciência e Natura (Online)
Download full: https://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaenatura/article/view/16217
Summary: http://dx.doi.org/10.5902/2179460X16217Although the huge scientific and computational advances of recent decades has enabled a greater understanding of the climate system and contributed to the analysis of possible causes and future impacts of global climate change, the uncertainties that pervade the climate projections, such as those reported by IPCC AR4, are still very large, particularly on a regional scale. This study evaluates the uncertainties involved in projections in South America rainfall in the the 20th and 21st century. Simulations of three climate general circulation models of the atmosphere Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5th Phase Project (CMIP5) are evaluated according to the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) method. The results of this study showed the ensemble reliability has been satisfactory for all South America in the RCP2.6 scenario, indicating good reliability of the models in this region.
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spelling UNCERTAINTIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS: PRELIMINARY ANALYSISIncertezas das Projeções de Mudanças Climáticas: Análise PreliminarReliability Ensemble AveragingAmérica do SulConfiabilidadehttp://dx.doi.org/10.5902/2179460X16217Although the huge scientific and computational advances of recent decades has enabled a greater understanding of the climate system and contributed to the analysis of possible causes and future impacts of global climate change, the uncertainties that pervade the climate projections, such as those reported by IPCC AR4, are still very large, particularly on a regional scale. This study evaluates the uncertainties involved in projections in South America rainfall in the the 20th and 21st century. Simulations of three climate general circulation models of the atmosphere Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5th Phase Project (CMIP5) are evaluated according to the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) method. The results of this study showed the ensemble reliability has been satisfactory for all South America in the RCP2.6 scenario, indicating good reliability of the models in this region.Embora o enorme avanço científico e computacional das últimas décadas tenha possibilitado um maior e melhor entendimento do sistema climático, e assim contribuído para as análises das possíveis causas e futuros impactos das mudanças climáticas globais, as incertezas que permeiam as projeções de clima, tais como as reportadas pelo IPCC AR4, ainda continuam muito grandes, principalmente em escala regional. Este trabalho avalia as incertezas envolvidas nas projeções de precipitação na América do Sul no século XXI. Simulações de clima X modelos de circulação geral da atmosfera disponível no Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5th Phase (CMIP5) são avaliadas de acordo com o método Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA). Os resultados deste estudo mostraram a confiabilidade do conjunto de modelos foi satisfatória para toda a América do Sul no cenário RCP2.6, indicando boa confiabilidade dos modelos nessa região.Universidade Federal de Santa Maria2015-03-07info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaenatura/article/view/1621710.5902/2179460X16217Ciência e Natura; Vol. 37 (2015): SPECIAL EDITION – V INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF CLIMATOLOGY (V SIC); 63-68Ciência e Natura; v. 37 (2015): EDIÇÃO ESPECIAL – V SIMPÓSIO INTERNACIONAL DE CLIMATOLOGIA; 63-682179-460X0100-8307reponame:Revista Ciência e Natura (Online)instname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)instacron:UFSMporhttps://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaenatura/article/view/16217/pdfSantos, Thalyta Soares dosMendes, DavidCastro, Aline Anderson deSilva, Allan Rodriguesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2018-08-29T12:05:18Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/16217Revistahttps://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaenatura/indexPUBhttps://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaenatura/oaicienciaenatura@ufsm.br || centraldeperiodicos@ufsm.br2179-460X0100-8307opendoar:2018-08-29T12:05:18Revista Ciência e Natura (Online) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv UNCERTAINTIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS
Incertezas das Projeções de Mudanças Climáticas: Análise Preliminar
title UNCERTAINTIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS
spellingShingle UNCERTAINTIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS
Santos, Thalyta Soares dos
Reliability Ensemble Averaging
América do Sul
Confiabilidade
title_short UNCERTAINTIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS
title_full UNCERTAINTIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS
title_fullStr UNCERTAINTIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS
title_full_unstemmed UNCERTAINTIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS
title_sort UNCERTAINTIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS
author Santos, Thalyta Soares dos
author_facet Santos, Thalyta Soares dos
Mendes, David
Castro, Aline Anderson de
Silva, Allan Rodrigues
author_role author
author2 Mendes, David
Castro, Aline Anderson de
Silva, Allan Rodrigues
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Santos, Thalyta Soares dos
Mendes, David
Castro, Aline Anderson de
Silva, Allan Rodrigues
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Reliability Ensemble Averaging
América do Sul
Confiabilidade
topic Reliability Ensemble Averaging
América do Sul
Confiabilidade
description http://dx.doi.org/10.5902/2179460X16217Although the huge scientific and computational advances of recent decades has enabled a greater understanding of the climate system and contributed to the analysis of possible causes and future impacts of global climate change, the uncertainties that pervade the climate projections, such as those reported by IPCC AR4, are still very large, particularly on a regional scale. This study evaluates the uncertainties involved in projections in South America rainfall in the the 20th and 21st century. Simulations of three climate general circulation models of the atmosphere Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5th Phase Project (CMIP5) are evaluated according to the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) method. The results of this study showed the ensemble reliability has been satisfactory for all South America in the RCP2.6 scenario, indicating good reliability of the models in this region.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015-03-07
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaenatura/article/view/16217
10.5902/2179460X16217
url https://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaenatura/article/view/16217
identifier_str_mv 10.5902/2179460X16217
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaenatura/article/view/16217/pdf
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal de Santa Maria
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal de Santa Maria
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Ciência e Natura; Vol. 37 (2015): SPECIAL EDITION – V INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF CLIMATOLOGY (V SIC); 63-68
Ciência e Natura; v. 37 (2015): EDIÇÃO ESPECIAL – V SIMPÓSIO INTERNACIONAL DE CLIMATOLOGIA; 63-68
2179-460X
0100-8307
reponame:Revista Ciência e Natura (Online)
instname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)
instacron:UFSM
instname_str Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)
instacron_str UFSM
institution UFSM
reponame_str Revista Ciência e Natura (Online)
collection Revista Ciência e Natura (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Revista Ciência e Natura (Online) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv cienciaenatura@ufsm.br || centraldeperiodicos@ufsm.br
_version_ 1839277879311990784

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