Stochastic versus Fuzzy Models: a Discussion Centered on the Reliability of an Electrical Power Supply System in a Large European Hospital

• Main Author: Pinto, Constâncio António
• Publication Date: 2022
• Other Authors: Farinha, José Torres, Raposo, Hugo, Galar, Diego
• Format: Article
• Language: eng
• Source: Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
• Download full: https://hdl.handle.net/10316/99533; https://doi.org/10.3390/en15031024
• topic: RAMS; Fuzzy inference system; Stochastic time Petri nets; Markov chains; Dynamic modeling

This paper discusses the Reliability, Availability, Maintainability, and Safety (RAMS) of an electrical power supply system in a large European hospital. The primary approach is based on fuzzy logic and Petri nets, using the CPNTools software to simulate and determine the most important modules of the system according to the Automatic Transfer Switch. Fuzzy Inference System is used to analyze and assess the reliability value. The stochastic versus fuzzy approach is also used to evaluate the reliability contribution of each system module. This case study aims to identify and analyze possible system failures and propose new solutions to improve the system reliability of the power supply system. The dynamic modeling is based on block diagrams and Petri nets and is evaluated via Markov chains, including a stochastic approach linked to the previous analysis. This holistic approach adds value to this type of research question. A new electrical power supply system design is proposed to increase the system’s reliability based on the results achieved.