A longer-run perspective on fiscal sustainability

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Afonso, António
Data de Publicação: 2014
Outros Autores: Jalles, João Tovar
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/25578
Resumo: We investigate the sustainability of fiscal policy in a set of 19 countries by taking a longer-run secular perspective over the period 1880–2009. Via a systematic analysis of the stationarity of the first-differenced level of government debt, and disentangling the components of the debt series using structural time series models, we conclude that since in most cases non-stationarity can be rejected, longer-run fiscal sustainability is not rejected (Japan and Spain can be exceptions). The same is true for a panel analysis when allowing for multiple structural breaks, and for cross-country dependence. In addition, endogenously identified breaks can be related to episodes of sovereign default.
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spelling A longer-run perspective on fiscal sustainabilityFiscal SustainabilityGovernment DebtUnit RootsMultiple BreaksStructural Time Series ModelsWe investigate the sustainability of fiscal policy in a set of 19 countries by taking a longer-run secular perspective over the period 1880–2009. Via a systematic analysis of the stationarity of the first-differenced level of government debt, and disentangling the components of the debt series using structural time series models, we conclude that since in most cases non-stationarity can be rejected, longer-run fiscal sustainability is not rejected (Japan and Spain can be exceptions). The same is true for a panel analysis when allowing for multiple structural breaks, and for cross-country dependence. In addition, endogenously identified breaks can be related to episodes of sovereign default.Springer ScienceRepositório da Universidade de LisboaAfonso, AntónioJalles, João Tovar2022-09-22T10:06:47Z20142014-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/25578engAfonso, António and João Tovar Jalles.(2014). "A longer-run perspective on fiscal sustainability". Empirica, Vol. 41, No. 4: pp. 821-847.10.1007/s10663-013-9240-0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)instname:FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologiainstacron:RCAAP2025-03-17T16:23:58Zoai:repositorio.ulisboa.pt:10400.5/25578Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireinfo@rcaap.ptopendoar:https://opendoar.ac.uk/repository/71602025-05-29T04:12:39.273604Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP) - FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologiafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv A longer-run perspective on fiscal sustainability
title A longer-run perspective on fiscal sustainability
spellingShingle A longer-run perspective on fiscal sustainability
Afonso, António
Fiscal Sustainability
Government Debt
Unit Roots
Multiple Breaks
Structural Time Series Models
title_short A longer-run perspective on fiscal sustainability
title_full A longer-run perspective on fiscal sustainability
title_fullStr A longer-run perspective on fiscal sustainability
title_full_unstemmed A longer-run perspective on fiscal sustainability
title_sort A longer-run perspective on fiscal sustainability
author Afonso, António
author_facet Afonso, António
Jalles, João Tovar
author_role author
author2 Jalles, João Tovar
author2_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Afonso, António
Jalles, João Tovar
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Fiscal Sustainability
Government Debt
Unit Roots
Multiple Breaks
Structural Time Series Models
topic Fiscal Sustainability
Government Debt
Unit Roots
Multiple Breaks
Structural Time Series Models
description We investigate the sustainability of fiscal policy in a set of 19 countries by taking a longer-run secular perspective over the period 1880–2009. Via a systematic analysis of the stationarity of the first-differenced level of government debt, and disentangling the components of the debt series using structural time series models, we conclude that since in most cases non-stationarity can be rejected, longer-run fiscal sustainability is not rejected (Japan and Spain can be exceptions). The same is true for a panel analysis when allowing for multiple structural breaks, and for cross-country dependence. In addition, endogenously identified breaks can be related to episodes of sovereign default.
publishDate 2014
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2014
2014-01-01T00:00:00Z
2022-09-22T10:06:47Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/25578
url http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/25578
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Afonso, António and João Tovar Jalles.(2014). "A longer-run perspective on fiscal sustainability". Empirica, Vol. 41, No. 4: pp. 821-847.
10.1007/s10663-013-9240-0
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer Science
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer Science
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
instname:FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
collection Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP) - FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
repository.mail.fl_str_mv info@rcaap.pt
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