Evolving time series forecasting ARMA models

• Main Author: Cortez, Paulo
• Publication Date: 2004
• Other Authors: Rocha, Miguel, Neves, José
• Format: Article
• Language: eng
• Source: Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
• Download full: http://hdl.handle.net/1822/2221
• topic: ARMA models; Evolutionary algorithms; Bayesian information criterion; Model selection; Time series analysis; Science & Technology

Nowadays, the ability to forecast the future, based only on past data, leads to strategic advantages, which may be the key to success in organizations. Time Series Forecasting (TSF) allows the modeling of complex systems as ``black-boxes'', being a focus of attention in several research arenas such as Operational Research, Statistics or Computer Science. Alternative TSF approaches emerged from the Artificial Intelligence arena, where optimization algorithms inspired on natural selection processes, such as Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs), are popular. The present work reports on a two-level architecture, where a (meta-level) binary EA will search for the best AutoRegressive Moving-Average (ARMA) model, being the parameters optimized by a (low-level) EA, which encodes real values. The handicap of this approach is compared with conventional forecasting methods, being competitive.