Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels

• Main Author: Chen, Kai
• Publication Date: 2024
• Other Authors: de Schrijver, Evan, Sivaraj, Sidharth, Sera, Francesco, Scovronick, Noah, Jiang, Leiwen, Roye, Dominic, Lavigne, Eric, Kyselý, Jan, Urban, Aleš, Schneider, Alexandra, Huber, Veronika, Madureira, Joana, Mistry, Malcolm N, Cvijanovic, Ivana, MCC Collaborative Research Network, Gasparrini, Antonio, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M
• Format: Article
• Language: eng
• Source: Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
• Download full: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/10352
• topic: Risk Factors; Environmental Impact; Mortality; MCC; Climate Change; Cold Temperature; Global Warming; Hot Temperature; Avaliação do Risco; Determinantes da Saúde e da Doença

Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%-0.4% at 1.5-3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.